Iran between Reform and Recession

Faced with economic globalisation and the spread of the scientific revolution, countries like Iran, locked in a theocratic regime, are in increasing difficulty. They try to suffocate the impulse of the new generations, women and economic forces which want development, the opportunity for dialogue with the rest of the world, and democratic reforms, and who do not consider this incompatible with maintaining their religious convictions and cultural traditions, believing that religion should be a personal spiritual matter and not a political imposition.

This is why the rebellion begun by students in the month of July, in the major Persian universities, was joined by a substantial proportion of civil society, the opposition in exile, that part of the press that has been reduced to silence, and an intelligentsia decimated by the regime. They call for reform of the state and contest the overweening power of the spiritual leader of the revolution, the heir of Khomeini, the ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The latter is inspired by fundamentalist Islam and by hatred of western civilisation, which is identified with "Satan". Khamenei bases his strength on the secret police, on Ansar-e Hezbollahis vigilante gangs and on the Pasdaran and Basiji militias, who fiercely repress every form of opposition, defending the indissoluble identity between religion and state. These "Blackshirts on motor-bikes" generally come from the poorest and most ignorant strata of the population and, being able to count on impunity, interpret the defence of the "sharia", Islamic law, as repression and elimination of transgressors by corporal punishment and murder. It seems that they infiltrated peaceful student demonstrations to create incidents and justify heavy-handed repression.

The President Mohammed Khatami, to whom the students were appealing, is a cautious reformer, elected by 70% of the vote, particularly by young people and women; he is in favour of opening up towards the west, the indispensable key to combating economic recession and launching a democratic development plan. He might have the support of the institutional armed forces (army, air force and navy), whose authority has been superseded by the special forces commanded by Khamenei, but he is obliged to act with great prudence, particularly as the elections will take place in February. The large counter-demonstration headed by ayatollah Khamenei in person suggests caution. But Mr. Khatami, facing the recent sentences to death of 4 leaders of the students’ organisations, has reaffirmed the validity of his commission of inquiry doomed to greatly extenuate the responsibilities of the university students. He has stated in front of the Pasdaran’s commanders, referring to the imam Komeini: "armed forces have the right to hold opinions and to make choices, but they must not meddle in politics".

Iran, which is the third non-Arab country in the Middle East, is divided between two opposing visions of the world, which could lead to civil war. In contrast to the suggestions of some political scientists (for example Samuel Huntington), who affirm that the future world order will necessarily be characterised by conflict between culturally homogeneous civilisations closed to the outside world, what is happening in Iran bears witness to the fact that internally, these so-called civilisations are on the contrary shaken by conflict between fundamentalist, nationalist and conservative forces, and reforming and progressive forces, currently suffocated by religious power, poverty, inflation and unemployment, who can clearly see that the closed theocratic society is an obstacle that must be pulled down in order to be able to embark on development and democracy.

It is not possible to open up the markets without reforming the state, without conceding the democratic freedoms which allow mobility and transmission of data and information in real time. What is the west doing to help this tendency? And Europe, which is so close and yet still so absent? It could have a very important role in the political and economic evolution of these countries which are its natural interlocutors. So far it has limited itself to some generic declaration of support in favour of Khatami, which has not however had a valid corresponding follow-up in terms of economic aid directed at encouraging development. Such declarations could have the effect of weakening Khatami: the fundamentalists have used them to denounce the latter’s links with the hated and dangerous west (g.b.).