The Nuclear Spectre

Serious friction between India and Pakistan over Kashmere have brought to the foreground once again the fear of a nuclear arms race; although a global war using non conventional weapons seems unlikely, nuclear weaponry is still considered an effective deterrent by some developing powers and the cold war climate, which seemed to have been forgotten after the end of the bipolarism, is reappearing on a regional scale. Tension between India and Pakistan was reported on May 25 by news agency Pakistan News Service "India exchanges artillery fire in Kashmere". Subsequently the Pakistani Foreign Affairs Ministry released a statement that "Pakistan reserves the right to respond appropriately". The nuclear arms race between the two nations has seen a remarkable acceleration over the last months: on April 11, India tested the ballistic missile Agni II with a 2,300 kilometres range; on April 14, Pakistan launched a Ghauri II series missile of the same range; on April 15, India declared that Agni II could carry nuclear warheads.

The prospect of a conflict between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out; although it would most likely involve conventional weapons, yet the reasons which trigger these nations to an arms race cannot be confined to deterrent needs at a local level. There is an evident attempt to gain a ranking in terms of power on an international scale. The very fact that India is ready to sign the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) provided it is admitted to the "nuclear club" or alternatively if there is complete dismantling of nuclear stockpiles speaks for itself. However, the latter option seems remote since the recent accord to reduce potential nuclear weaponry between Russia and America (START II) has not yet been ratified by the Duma even though it was passed by the US Senate on January 26, 1996. The Chinese factor has also weighed heavily on the increased nuclear threat. The Director of the Centre for Defence Studies and Analyses of the Indian Government, has quite openly accused the United States, following the recent scandal on the news leak at Los Alamos, of handing China, via the Internet, millions of secret military data concerning nuclear tests. In addition to this, India reserves the right to maintain a minimum nuclear stockpile, as a consequence of the "continued deployment of nuclear arms on the territory of non nuclear nations which are NATO members".

The international scenario appears highly fragmented. The lack of control on the development of nuclear weapons on an international level continues to grow more and more dangerous. Can one of the developing nations’ need for emancipation threaten global security? Maybe the first step to solving this crisis is to convince the Indian Government to sign the CTBT: which would seem a reasonable step since the President of the Commission on Indian Nuclear Energy himself stated, on May 10, this decision would not weaken the nation’s nuclear deterrent capacity. This shows there is still a long way to go (g.u.).