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RUGOVA’S
SCARF
by
Franz Gustincich
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Balkan elections this fall were a lovely mess. Above all the ones
Slobodan Milosevic lost in the Yugoslav Federation and those won by
Ibrahim Rugova in Kossovo which, all in all, upon close examination, is
still the Yugoslav Federation.
His direct competitor, Hashim Thaci, was put in the minority, somewhat
because Milosevic didn’t have the good taste to wait for the Kossovo
elections before leaving the scene, thus removing the bugbear of his not
very illustrious figure. This may be another reason why Hajredinai’s
AAK received only 8% of the preferences.
If we line up these results with those of the Serbian elections, we
obtain nothing because, formally, the elections of Vojslav Kostunica,
who in 1974 was expelled from the University of Belgrade for his
activities against granting independence to Kossovo, were not
supposed to have been valid. But Kostunica was nevertheless appointed by
the people.
What is important in order to have a clear reference picture before
analysing the result is that Milosevic and Thaci are out of the game,
that Kostunica and Rugova are happy opponents and that the international
community doesn’t know which way to turn.
Meanwhile the Kossovars are distrustful, and explain that the West
cannot think that the only person responsible for ten years of decay can
be pin-pointed only in the dear old enemy Slobodan Milosevic.
Yet Kostunica himself could end up in a lot of trouble if considerable
upsets are brought about by the Western policy concerning, for example,
the withdrawal of KFOR troop contingents in anticipation of independence
of the region. In fact, how could Belgrade withstand the pressure of
Kossovo starting off towards independence? Even if there was sufficient
military strength available for a science fiction type of lineup,
annexing the region again would create a national security problem of
unsustainable dimensions.
Arben Xhaferri, leader of the Democratic Prosperity Party (the Albanian
party sharing power in Macedonia), which has always been an adversary of
Rugova, maintains that Kossovo is now ruined, and the Albanian weight in
Macedonia is very important. Therefore Xhaferri cannot be excluded when
considering Balkan stability. In this strange reality where everything
rises to the level of a symbol, we notice that Rugova has changed the
frame of his characteristic eyeglasses: It is a sign? It could be.
But if his scarf, too, disappears when winter arrives, then we can truly
say that we are in a Kossovo that is independent from Yugoslavia. Even
though, in no case, certainly not independent from the United States.
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