Burns
2001 Sep;27(6):583-90
Predicting
survival in an elderly burn patient population.
Wibbenmeyer LA,
Amelon MJ, Morgan LJ, Robinson BK, Chang PX, Lewis
R 2nd, Kealey GP.
Department
of Surgery, The University of Iowa College of
Medicine, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA.
The purpose of this study was to analyze the
outcome of elderly burn victims and to determine
an instrument to predict survival in this
population. Charts of three hundred and eight burn
patients > or =60 yr of age who were admitted
to a university-based hospital between the years
of 1977-1996 were retrospectively analyzed. The
mean age of the population was 71.5+/-8.6, with a
male predominance (1.8 to 1, P < 0.001). The
majority of the burns were secondary to flame
injuries (210, 68.6%). The median body surface
area (BSAB) was 13.0% with an in-hospital
mortality rate of 30.2%. We demonstrated improved
survival in patients aged 60-74 yr as compared to
1965-1971 national burn survival data. A similar
trend could not be shown in the very old (> 75
yr of age). Only age and BSAB were related to
death by multiple stepwise forward linear
regression. The Baux score, which adds age and
BSAB, was predictive of outcome in 87.0% of our
population. In conclusion, this study reinforces
the high mortality associated with burn injuries
in the elderly and the superior ability of the
Baux score (age + percent burn) in predicting
outcome in this population.
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